Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, author of Axios China

TAIPEI — Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progress Party candidate William Lai won Saturday’s presidential election after the main opposition candidate conceded defeat.

Why it matters: The Chinese government is likely to ratchet up its pressure campaign against Taiwan in response to the election of a politician that Beijing has called a “separatist through and through.”

• This election was viewed as a potential referendum on Taiwan’s cross-Strait policies after eight years of DPP rule and growing pressure from Beijing.

What they’re saying: “I want to thank the Taiwanese people for writing a new chapter in our democracy. We have shown the world how much we cherish our democracy,” Lai said after the results on Saturday.

• “As president I have an important responsibility to maintain peace and ability in the Taiwan Strait,” he added.
• Lai said he would uphold the cross-Strait status quo and pursue dialogue with China but that he is “determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China.”

Details: By 8 pm local time, Lai had garnered more than 5 million votes, making it impossible for the rival Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih to catch up.

• Hou conceded shortly thereafter and congratulated Lai on the victory.

The big picture: The DPP lost control of the legislature.

• While no party secured a majority, KMT and third-party Taiwan People’s Party had strong showings. That means the DPP and KMT will likely be competing for TPP support for their legislative agendas, said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Chengchi University in Taipei.

Zoom in: “This is an unprecedented victory for Lai: a third straight presidential term for the same party,” Raymond Kuo, director of the RAND Corporation’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, told Axios.

• “The KMT needs serious internal reform. The TPP’s relatively strong showing mostly came at their expense.”

Background: The Chinese government had previously warned against voting for Lai, saying his election would “trigger cross-Strait confrontation and conflict.”

• Researchers and Taiwanese government officials accused China of election interference in the months leading up to the election.
• Discussions of Taiwan’s election were heavily censored on China’s social media.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said Saturday after the results were announced that Beijing’s “stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock.”

• Bejing firmly opposes “the separatist activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ as well as foreign interference,” he added.

What to watch: The Biden administration said earlier this week it will send an unofficial delegation including former senior officials to Taiwan after the election.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/13/taiwan-election-2024-results-dpp-kmt-china-update